Thought for the day

15 10 2013

A few salient quotes from the Wikipedia page on earthquake prediction:

“Earthquake prediction … appears to be on the verge of practical reality” (credited to Scholz, Sykes and Aggarwal 1973)

“Routine announcement of reliable predictions may be possible within ten years” (credited to the NAS Panel on Earthquake Prediction, 1976)

“At least ten years, maybe more, before widespread, reliable prediction of major earthquakes is achieved” (credited to Richard Kerr, 1978)

“Despite over a century of scientific effort, the understanding of earthquake predictability remains immature” (credited to ICEF, 2011)


Now, I know next to nothing about earthquake prediction. But I can predict that, within the next thirty years, those who are experienced in such matters will be able to reliably predict whether earthquake prediction will, someday, become reliable.




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